Let’s begin with this caveat: We are a little more than two weeks into the 2016 MLB season.
Making definitive predictions about a season not even 10 percent finished is as futile a task as predicting the Republican nominee. Depending on your loyalties, if these were two random weeks in July, emotional reactions wouldn’t be nearly as polarizing.
The last-place Houston Astros wouldn’t be as panicked. The first-place Colorado Rockies may not be as optimistic. But this is all baseball has provided with which to rank its six divisions.
So don’t take this as a prediction of any kind. Simply, it’s an evaluation of MLB’s divisions over the first two weeks, top-to-bottom, regarding how well each has lived up to expectation, and a look into why each of these divisions may be struggling or thriving.
6. AL West
The Houston Astros were supposed to be the class of the division after earning the wild card last season. But a promising, young group of players has struggled through the first two weeks of the season.
Houston was just 5-9 heading into Wednesday’s games.
But as we dissect baseball’s most disappointing team to date, one stat reveals Houston’s problems: The Astros have given up 12 home runs in 14 games.
Of course one disappointing team doesn’t make for an underwhelming division, but the entire AL West has struggled through the first two weeks of the season.
The Texas Rangers, last year’s division winner, and the Oakland A's were the only two teams in the AL West with records over .500, pending late Wednesday night games. Texas played the Astros in a late game.
Collectively the division’s struggles can be attributed to a lack of hitting. Heading into Wednesday’s action only the Rangers, not surprisingly, ranked in the top half of the league in batting average.
Texas was hitting .258 on the season, eighth-best in baseball. The Los Angeles Angels were hitting .220 (24th), the A's .219 (25th) and the Mariners .211 (28th).
Somewhat surprisingly given their record, the Astros were hitting .241, which ranked them 16th.
5. AL East
On paper this may be baseball’s most talented division given some of its offseason additions.
The Toronto Blue Jays return one of the best power-hitting trios in baseball history in Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. The trio combined to hit 120 home runs in 2015.
The New York Yankees traded for talented second baseman Starlin Castro and closer Aroldis Chapman who is currently serving a 30-game suspension for an alleged incidence of domestic violence, adding to a roster of high-priced, accomplished players.
The Boston Red Sox signed prized free-agent ace David Price this offseason and brought closer Craig Kimbrel to Fenway to keep pace in a division that may feature baseball’s best group of bullpens.
Yet the Baltimore Orioles were the only team above .500 heading into Wednesday night.
To Baltimore, the baseball looks like a beach ball right now. The Orioles were the second-best hitting team in the league, raking an impressive .285. This oft-forgotten franchise looks like it will firmly remain in the playoff race with one of baseball’s sneaky-good offenses.
Baltimore third baseman Manny Machado, early on, appears like an MVP candidate hitting .392/.436/.784 through 12 games this season. Signed to a new contract this offseason, Chris Davis has struggled with a .205 average but has already hit five home runs in 12 games.
And while the Orioles seem to be overachieving—or at least playing to expectation—many stars of the AL East have grossly underachieved.
The Yankees were 5-8 through 13 games this season, and their high-priced talent was only hitting .239. The Blue Jays were 8-8. While Toronto’s aforementioned trio has built solidly upon its remarkable 2015 season, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has continued to struggle.
In 16 games he was hitting .161 for a Toronto team that ranks 11th in runs scored this year after leading the league in virtually every offensive category a season ago.
The Yankees, among baseball’s most puzzling teams, are hitting only .189 with runners in scoring position.
4. NL Central
Last year this division, courtesy of the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, owned baseball’s three best records.
This season the division looks entirely less competitive.
Chicago has dominated, boasting baseball’s second-highest scoring offense despite hitting only .236—an indication that they are drawing walks and have the potential to be even better. The team’s 2.29 ERA ranks second only to the Washington Nationals.
Likewise St. Louis’ offense has been among baseball’s best, thanks largely to the emergence of rookie Jeremy Hazelbaker. But early pitching struggles, which have corrected themselves of late, leave the Cardinals near .500.
The Milwaukee Brewers are in rebuild mode and have no intention of contending, though pitcher Wily Peralta is someone worth watching should you be near Miller Park.
The surprise of the division has been the Cincinnati Reds, which similarly weren't considered winners but sit above .500.
3. NL East
It seems as if a new voice truly was all the Washington Nationals needed.
Manager Dusty Baker is more relaxed than his predecessor Matt Williams, which has allowed the Nationals to appear as if they are playing looser. Washington now looks like the division favorite, which was the expectation a season ago.
The problem: This season the New York Mets were expected to dominate with a young pitching staff that still has a chance to be baseball’s best.
Instead the Mets find themselves battling to stay above .500.
New York’s pitching staff has held up its end with a 3.09 ERA that’s ranked fifth in baseball heading into Wednesday.
But early offensive struggles have the team playing a little catch-up. In the first eight games of the season, the Mets scored more than three runs once.
2. NL West
One might look at the records of these teams—only the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies are above .500—but in this division they are misleading.
The San Francisco Giants have played 13 straight games against division opponents and have struggled, which altered their otherwise promising start to the season.
San Francisco is still one of baseball’s most explosive teams, having scored 77 runs in 15 games. Giants pitchers struggled at hitter-friendly Coors Field, allowing the Rockies to score 21 runs in the final two games of the series, which spurred a current streak in which the Giants have only won one of eight.
Questions about the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda have been answered early as the Japanese rookie is 2-0 with a paper-thin 0.47 ERA.
The Rockies have been propelled by the success of rookie Trevor Story, and the Arizona Diamondbacks, Giants and Dodgers have all at times this season looked capable of competing for a spot in the playoffs.
Though Story’s power surge has taken center stage, this division is loaded with offensive talent. The Rockies ranked second and the Dodgers fourth in runs scored prior to the start of games on Wednesday.
1. AL Central
Though the sabermetricians hate the Kansas City Royals, predicting them to underwhelm every season, the reigning World Series champs again look poised to contend for their third straight AL crown.
But they are second to baseball’s most surprising team, the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox overcame adversity this spring. Adam LaRoche retired after he was told his son Drake could not be present in the clubhouse to the extent his father had wished.
That caused a near civil war within the organization as players spoke out against management—friction that appeared might spill into the season.
But fueled by a pitching staff that had a 2.45 ERA through 15 games, the White Sox look like they’ll avenge a disappointing 2016. Credit the acquisition of Mat Latos, who currently is 3-0 with a 0.49 ERA, to add depth to one of baseball’s best rotations through the first two weeks of the season.
The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians too are pushing toward playoff contention while the Twins are the only team that has underwhelmed in a division that looks like it may be the most competitive in MLB.
Jake Arrieta didn't have one no-hitter in his first 123 career starts. Now he has two in his last 11.
The Chicago Cubs ace struck out six and spread out four walks over nine innings of work in Thursday's 16-0 blowout over the Cincinnati Reds. Arrieta's is the first no-hitter of the 2016 MLB season.
He joins Larry Corcoran and Ken Holtzman as the only Cubs in franchise history with multiple no-nos, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area captured a shot of a fan who was a little too excited:
The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has 15 wins in his last 16 regular-season starts. He's given up zero or one earned run in 14 of those starts and shut out the opposition in 12 outings. The run ranks among the best in MLB history, a stretch of dominance more reminiscent of the dead-ball era than modern baseball.
Arrieta is off to a 4-0 start in 2016. He's given up just three runs in 31 innings—all in the same start. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN twisted the knife a bit for Baltimore Orioles fans:
While it will go down in the books as a no-hitter, Arrieta was far from perfect Thursday. He racked up 119 pitches over his nine innings of work—19 more than any of his other starts this season—and had some issues with control. When he was finding the strike zone, the Reds couldn't hit him, but their patience nearly paid off in a couple of spots.
Fortunately for Arrieta, his offense gave him more than enough breathing room. Kris Bryant hit two home runs as part of a 4-for-6 night, driving in six runs as the Cubs pounded the Cincinnati staff. BenZobrist and Anthony Rizzo also went deep, each knocking in three runs.
Every Cub other than Addison Russell had at least one hit, includingArrieta, who helped his own cause with a 2-for-4 outing.
Still, this is more about Arrieta's sustained dominance than anything. He's become almost a cheat code at this point. There's no better pitcher in baseball—perhaps no better player, period—than Arrieta at the moment.
The Cubs came into 2016 with World Series aspirations. If Arrieta keeps throwing like this, it might take a herd of goats to keep the Cubs from winning it all.
